Turkey expands military footprint in Somalia as regional rivalries intensify

Turkey’s role in Somalia is under growing scrutiny, with the East African country embroiled in controversy over elections and Israel stepping up efforts to challenge Turkey in the region.

Over the last two years Turkey has ramped up its economic and military presence in Somalia, building on decades of development. The East African country is home to Turkey’s largest overseas military base and this year it bolstered its military presence, deploying F16 fighter jets and tanks.

Turkey is also constructing a space port for its rapidly advancing missile programme, and the two countries have signed agreements to exploit potentially vast energy reserves.

But the deepening partnership is proving increasingly controversial, says Omar Mahmood of the International Crisis Group.

While five or 10 years ago there would have been "quite high praise" for Turkey's role, that's changed over the last two years. "Some of these [Turkish] contracts and projects have tipped into [a much] greater scale and that has raised questions" he noted.

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Election dispute

A looming constitutional crisis is adding to the scrutiny of Turkey’s role in Somalia. The Somali government is insisting it has one year left of its electoral mandate, while the opposition claims elections should be held in May.

"The core issue is that the political elite are infighting about the system,” explains Mahmood. “So anytime that happens, those who are against the government wind up complaining and then also looking at who is supporting the Somali government."

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s authorisation of $30 million in cash aid to the Somali government, which coincided with an April visit to Istanbul by his Somali counterpart, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, drew criticism from both the Somali and Turkish opposition.

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“Turkey providing cash aid to the Somali government sparked the debate,” said African studies professor Elem Eyrice Tepeciklioglu, of the Social Sciences University of Ankara.

“It seems some people think Turkey supports the ruling government, and provides support to the ruling government because they benefit from the relationship.”

Ankara has strongly refuted accusations of interference in Somali politics. However, it could be paying the price for being too focused on Mogadishu in the past, given the diverse nature of Somalia's regions.

“Turkey has started to learn from its mistakes,” said Tepeciklioglu. “They have started to increase their involvement with different states, with different regions, and have started to increase their engagement with local people as well.”

Rivalry in the region

Turkey is also facing a growing challenge in the region from Israel, which in April appointed an ambassador to Somaliland – becoming the first country to recognise the breakaway republic, which seceded from Somalia in 1991.

“It’s been useful probably for [Israel] to assert themselves against Turkey in an area where Turkey has firmly planted its flag,” said Norman Ricklefs of geopolitical consultancy, the NAMEA Group.

Israeli-Turkish relations remain strained over Ankara’s support of Hamas and Israel’s war against Gaza and Lebanon. The Israeli government has indicated it is considering a military presence in Somaliland, to counter the threat posed by the Houthis in Yemen.

“I don't think we're at that stage yet,” said Ricklefs. "But any Israeli military presence in Somaliland is going to raise angst amongst the neighbours – Somalia, Egypt, Turkey and potentially Saudi Arabia. Obviously, it's going to be destabilising.”

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The Horn of Africa could be a potential new flashpoint if Israel deploys military assets in Somaliland, agrees international relations professor Serhat Guvenc of Istanbul’s Kadir Has University.

"The potential for conflict between Israel and Turkey is really high, because they're pursuing diametrically opposed objectives. If relations further deteriorate, then we may see tensions running high between the two countries because they would be in almost physical contact. Their military assets may run the risk of having dangerous encounters with each other."

Israeli-Turkish rivalry in the region threatens to exacerbate existing tensions in an already volatile area. For Turkey, which has invested more than €1 billion in development in Somalia over the past decade, and is also eyeing major financial returns from its energy exploration in Somalian waters, the stakes are high.