Turkey enters political unknown after police raid opposition party headquarters

Turkey's main opposition CHP was thrown into fresh disarray Saturday as court-installed leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu made his first visit to party headquarters since a controversial court ruling scrapped a 2023 party primary. Ozgur Ozel, the CHP leader ousted by the decision, called for an urgent congress, telling thousands at an Ankara rally that the party "cannot be run by an appointed leader".

The 21 May court ruling has plunged the CHP, Turkey's oldest political party, into a crisis.

Three days after the order, riot police forced their way into the party's headquarters in Ankara, armed with pepper spray and batons, to remove CHP leader Ozgur Ozel – a key rival to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The court said Ozel's 2023 election as party leader was marred by irregularities, and restored the former leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

In Turkey, elections are overseen by the Supreme Election Council, which certified Ozel’s win, and its rulings are constitutionally final.

It is just the latest move against the CHP, which scored a major victory over Erdogan's ruling AKP in the 2024 local elections and has since gained ground in the polls.

Party primary

Kilicdaroglu visited that party headquarters on Saturday to mark the final day of Eid, with a photo shared by his team on social media showing him seated at his desk with a copy of the party's bylaws placed prominently in front of him.

"I will bring a ballot box for party congress before you as soon as possible," Kilicdaroglu said in an address, without providing a precise date.

Ozel renewed his challenge to Kilicdaroglu to contest a party primary, saying he was willing to run "with whatever delegates he wants".

With crowds chanting "Traitor Kemal!", Ozel said the party congress must be held "immediately", urging Kilicdaroglu to "hold a congress at once, with whichever delegates you wish. Give the party an elected leader without delay. The CHP does not accept appointments."

He also demanded a primary election, saying that he would give up the party leadership if he received less than 85 percent support.

Turkey expert Gonul Tol, a senior fellow at United States think tank, the Middle East Institute told RFI that Kilicdaroglu is "a convenient opponent for [President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan, because he "lost every major election during his 13 years at the helm of the party."

Turkey riot police use tear gas to take opposition party HQ

'A broader campaign'

Ozel, 51, was elected leader at a party convention after 77-year-old Kilicdaroglu lost the 2023 presidential election. Ozel has revitalized the CHP, which now leads many opinion polls. Tol suggests Ozel's removal is part of a wider campaign.

"This is the latest step in Erdogan's broader campaign to weaken the opposition," said Tol.

“Last March, in another unprecedented move, authorities jailed Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoglu – he is Erdogan's top political rival. And since then, the government has systematically targeted CHP mayors through court cases and corruption investigations,” she added.

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Addressing protesters, Ozel vowed to flood the streets and squares in defiance of what he calls a judicial coup, while also appealing his removal.

Kilicdaroglu, meanwhile, is promising to restore order to the party and cleanse it of “corrupting forces”.

The government insists the judiciary is independent and denies any political agenda.

Erdogan has remained silent on the issue. Still, some observers see the opposition’s upheaval as part of Erdogan’s grander vision for Turkey’s future.

Political commentator Sezin Oney from independent Turkish media outletPolitikyol notes that Erdogan is eager to shape the post-Erdogan era.

"He wants to design the succession, most probably to have a close family member replacing him. So he wants to shape the whole [political] terrain accordingly."

'Opposition psyche'

Erdogan has ruled Turkish politics for almost 25 years, buoyed by both his political acumen and a fragmented opposition.

But in the past year, Ozel’s energetic leadership has powered over 100 mass rallies nationwide, even in Erdogan’s strongholds, as Ozel taps into rising public frustration over crackdowns on dissent and skyrocketing food prices.

The removal of Ozel as CHP leader is seen as a pivotal moment for Turkish democracy.

“Turkey is moving closer to a Russia-style system where the leader decides who the opposition will be and ensures no real surprise can emerge at the ballot box,” predicts Tol. “Why is Erdogan taking such a massive political and economic risk? Erdogan knows he cannot win genuinely free and fair elections anymore."

With Erdogan enjoying close ties with US President Donald Trump and the European Union increasingly looking to Turkey as a security partner, under the looming Russian threat, international reaction has been muted over the latest move against the opposition.

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Speaking to tens of thousands of people at a rally in Izmir on Tuesday, Ozel vowed to escalate protests. Rumours are swirling that he could launch a new party.

One opinion poll found only 11 percent of respondents approved of the removal of Ozel. Yet the legal noose appears to be tightening, with reports suggesting his parliamentary immunity could be stripped and that he may soon join other top party members behind bars.

“We don't have the opposition in political representation form, but the people are there. The opposition psyche of the people is still there. So you cannot absolutely nullify the people or their political views,” said Oney.

“We don't know what's going to come out of it. We can make predictions, but it's something totally novel and new in Turkey, and Turkish history as well."