Turkey's new opposition party offers hope, but its future is already in jeopardy

The launch of the Yeni Party in Turkey promises to energise the country's struggling opposition. But while some polls show it leading, it remains vulnerable – already beset by arrests it says are "politically motivated".

In a glitzy video, set to pumping music and shared widely across social media, Ozgur Ozel launched the Yeni Party – "New Party" – vowing to usher in a new era in Turkish politics and end President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s long rule.

Ozel founded the New Party after a court removed him from leading the main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP).

His rival, former party leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, 77, who lost every election during his decade in charge of the CHP, replaced him.

Many in the country believe Erdogan played a role in the removal of Ozel, as his popularity grew thanks to tireless campaigning.

Riding the wave

The New Party is settings its sights beyond the CHP’s usual supporters.

"It covers the whole political spectrum in Turkish political life," explains Ozel's advisor Ilham Uzel.

"There are critical elements like democratisation, rule of law, secularism and a pro-Western approach, so we maintain these main pillars. But it is not confined to social democracy; we reach out to every section of Turkish society, including Islamists and conservatives, nationalists and liberals. We have Kurdish supporters."

The New Party is riding a wave of excitement. Ninety-one out of 135 CHP parliamentary deputies have defected to its ranks, joined by dozens of mayors and it is swiftly becoming the main opposition in parliament.

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Some polls show the party soaring above 30 percent, leaving Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party behind, while the CHP’s support has collapsed.

The New Party’s broad approach is finding fertile ground. "Even those who still support the governing coalition, the AK Party and MHP, are unhappy with how things are or how politics is practised, especially regarding economic issues. So there is a push towards change," says political commentator Sezin Oney.

"There is a yearning to change things at the grassroots, and the New Party may be the only party that can represent a new way of doing politics. But they have to live up to it, of course."

Corruption charges

Erdogan has remained in power for more than 20 years partly by exploiting divisions within the opposition, which is made up of conservatives, hardline secularists, and both Kurdish and Turkish nationalists.

The New Party has a key advantage over the strongly secular CHP, whose history is linked to past policies targeting Turkey’s large Kurdish minority and religious conservatives.

"CHP is identified with many bad experiences that the Kurds and conservative people had in past decades," said Mesut Yegen of the Diyarbakir-based Kurdish Studies Center.

"If you look at what Ozgur Ozel says during his speeches, you may clearly see the Yeni Party doesn’t have the baggage of CHP."

Erdogan has also often exploited the CHP’s history, painting it as anti-religious and hostile to Kurdish minority rights. The New Party faces the tricky task of keeping CHP loyalists on board while reaching new supporters.

But for now, simply staying out of jail may be the most pressing concern for its representatives.

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Several mayors who joined the New Party have been arrested on corruption charges, widely seen as politically motivated. In the past two years, 26 opposition mayors and hundreds of officials have been imprisoned on corruption allegations, compared to two mayors from Erdogan’s AK Party.

"They are cracking down on our party – every other day, mayors are arrested," says Uzgel. "They filed another charge against our leader. Nobody is safe in this authoritarian regime. So Mr Ozel is on the spot, definitely."

Ozel is protected by parliamentary immunity, but Oney warns he may be running out of time.

"Ozgur Ozel might be imprisoned himself once his immunity is removed by a parliamentary vote, that's a possibility. The only immunity he can have is the immunity bestowed upon him by the people. So only public opinion is protecting him. How much can it protect him? We'll see."

With parliament about to break for summer until October, Ozel has a brief window to strengthen his party and rally public support.